I’m surprised by the lack of activity we saw in sales and listings this March 2024. Right now, the market feels “mild” to me — not hot but not cold. The numbers from the Greater Vancouver Realtor’s news release show sales 30% below the 10 year average.
Too many buyers are sitting on the fence hoping rates fall. Best time to buy is when everyone’s running the other way. Some good deals out there now in Air-conditioned buildings in Downtown Vancouver–some two bedrooms are selling $100K cheaper than several years ago!
On interest rates, I don’t expect rates to rise much from here, and I don’t believe they’ll fall either (because inflation in Canada and US is stubbornly high between 3 and 4%). Take the Bank of Canada at their word when they say rates aren’t coming down until they wrestle inflation down to 2%.
Which is the better mortgage product: Variable or Fixed?
I wouldn’t choose the variable rate today. I’d choose a 3 year fixed, because rates won’t come down by much (if at all) in the next 18 months. Some brokers are getting 4.9s or 5% fixed rates which is better than the 6.5% variable. Even if the Variable came down 150 basis points (1.5%) over 18 months, you’d save way more money on the fixed.
Inventory remains low. While higher than this time last year, we’re still 9.5% below the 10 year average for listings.
We may see an increase in condo listings across Greater Vancouver, because anti-AirBnb legislation handcuffs owners’ use of property. Rental rates are too low to make positive cash flow off long-term rentals (Yes, even with today’s rental rates!). How many owners will cash out?
My guess is that Downtown Vancouver condo prices hold steady and possibly trend a few percentage points lower. I wouldn’t wait to pull the trigger, because lower rates won’t be with us until 2025 at the earliest.
Nothing points to a large number of detached listings coming to market. There’s few newly built/renovated homes. Expect this trend to continue. Here’s a link to 79 detached homes that sold on the West Side between March 1 and today: Click Here to View Listings
I picked the following four homes that are renovated/newer-ish and with suites/basement income in Kitsilano, Point Grey, and Arbutus, because buyers need the income to help shoulder monthly payments.
If you had to choose, which 3 or 4 would you buy from this list? Click Here to View Listings
Okay, so I picked out these 4:
3180 W 3RD AVENUE: $3.37m – renovated 1920s house.
3828 W 15TH: $3.57m
3765 W16TH: $3.5m
2885 W 20TH: $3.3m
Don’t get anchored to assessment values! Some buyers give very little thought to it. Look more at the property’s desirability (lovely yard, deck for summer bbqs, quiet tree-lined street, etc.) and focus on market values (final selling prices). The four homes above sold between $75K to $400K above their BC assessment values ($75K, $189K, 294K, and $371K over assessed).
As for West Side house prices, I don’t think they have much further to go down. The big shock to the housing market was the drastic increase in rates through 2022 and early 2023. A rapid rise in rates like we saw is the biggest hammer to the housing market.
Detached homes on the West Side weathered the storm and modestly ticked up, with prices 4% higher on the West Side year over year. Watch for prices to pick up from here.
Over and out.
Christian Butzek
778 322 6745
5-Star Rated Realtor. Google me!
Top 10% of Realtors in Greater Vancouver in 2017-2019, 2022-2023